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❄️AI Winter

Second AI Winter

1987-1993

1987By Symbolics Inc., LMI, Apple
Second AI Winter visualization: 1987-1993 - The expert systems bubble burst. Companies realized these systems were expensive, fragile, and hard ... Historic AI milestone from 1987
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The expert systems bubble burst. Companies realized these systems were expensive, fragile, and hard to maintain. The LISP machine market collapsed, and AI companies went bankrupt.

Introduction

The second AI winter was another period of reduced funding and interest in artificial intelligence. It was triggered by the collapse of the specialized Lisp machine market and the realization that expert systems were expensive to build and maintain and were only applicable to a narrow range of problems.

Historical Context

The second AI winter was triggered by several factors. In the 1980s, several companies had built specialized computers (Lisp machines) to run AI programs written in the Lisp programming language. These machines were expensive and optimized for symbolic AI. By the late 1980s, general-purpose workstations from companies like Sun Microsystems had become powerful enough to run AI programs, and they were much cheaper than Lisp machines. The Lisp machine market collapsed, and companies like Symbolics and Lisp Machines Inc. went out of business.

Technical Details

While expert systems like XCON were successful, many others were not. They were expensive to develop, difficult to maintain, and brittle (i.e., they failed when faced with problems outside their narrow domain). The 'expert systems boom' of the 1980s turned into a bust as companies realized that expert systems were not the panacea they had hoped for. The technical limitations of rule-based systems became increasingly apparent as companies tried to scale them to more complex domains.

Notable Quotes

"The AI winter was a period of reduced funding and interest in artificial intelligence, caused by the collapse of the expert systems market."

AI Historians

Describing the second AI winter

Cultural Impact

As with the first AI winter, the second was marked by a significant reduction in government and industry funding for AI research. The Strategic Computing Initiative, a major DARPA program that had funded AI research in the 1980s, was scaled back. Symbolics, once valued at over $100 million, went from profitability to bankruptcy. Apple canceled their AI research division, and many other companies followed suit.

Contemporary Reactions

The second AI winter had a similar effect to the first. It led to a further decline in AI research and a loss of confidence in the field. Many researchers left AI for other areas of computer science, and the term 'artificial intelligence' continued to be associated with hype and failure. Some researchers began avoiding the term, preferring 'informatics,' 'knowledge-based systems,' or 'machine learning' instead.

Timeline of Events

1980s
Expert systems boom creates unsustainable expectations
1987
Lisp machine market begins to collapse
1987-1993
Period of the Second AI Winter
Late 1980s
Symbolics and other AI companies go bankrupt
1990s
General-purpose PCs replace specialized AI hardware
Early 1990s
Strategic Computing Initiative scaled back
Mid-1990s
Researchers shift focus to machine learning and subfields

Legacy

However, the second AI winter also led to a shift in focus towards more practical and tractable problems. Researchers began to focus on subfields of AI, such as machine learning and computer vision, rather than trying to build general-purpose intelligent systems. This shift laid the groundwork for the successes of the 2000s and 2010s. The second AI winter reinforced the lessons of the first, highlighting the importance of realistic expectations and the need for a solid theoretical foundation for AI research.

Impact on AI

Expert systems industry collapsed from $2B to nearly nothing. Desktop PCs killed specialized AI hardware. Another generation of AI researchers left the field.

Fun Facts

Symbolics (LISP machines) went from $100M revenue to bankruptcy

Apple canceled their AI research division

The term 'AI' was avoided in favor of 'informatics' or 'knowledge-based systems'

This winter lasted 6 years and was deeper than the first

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